How random is the 1v1 map rotation?

[SeraphimLeftNut]

last 8 games, ended up with rivers 6 times

This kind of non random behavior seems to have been going on for years.

Given the current 16 map rotation

The chance to draw the same map 4 times in a row is (1/16)^3 = 1/4096
Similarly for 3 games in a row, the chance is (1/16)^2 = 1/256

Do others see this kind of improbably behavior as well?

[nocaps]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion

tbh this shit doesn't dignify a more thorough response

[Ithilis_Quo]

you are wrong.

probability to take 4-10000 time same map in row is all time 1/16. I will bet my shoos that its programed for actual game and dont look back on previous one.
So all time it take 1 from 16. (of course if it take 1 from 16 and dont have some other bug, what should easy happend)

[Sheeo]

TA, nobody injected any nonrandom code into the map selection algorithm. It's right here: https://github.com/FAForever/server/blo ... ice.py#L34

nocaps is spot on with his answer.


If, however, enough people feel this, we could do what Apple did with iTunes back in the day and make it less truly random by removing repeats. We've had this discussion before.

[Exotic_Retard]

im pretty sure that no repeats is pretty much required in ladder system anyway.

i.e. dont get same map in last 5 games.

[SeraphimLeftNut]

http://pasteboard.co/1w9y1hLx.jpg

I find it amusing how the user is always the very first victim when it comes to computers

[Morax]

If people want to play 1v1 without repeats, bullshit rating calculations, etc, play WWPC where it uses global function that still works.

[Axle]

TA, you're not the only one who gets suspicious about the randomness of the map selection. I also got a bit suspicious a while ago and did some statistical analysis on it. However I couldn't find anything that was statistically significant. I tested whether any particular map is being chosen more frequently than by random chance - no evidence to suggest; and I tested whether the nth map may be correlated to the (n+1)th map - also no evidence to suggest.

But maybe that all means that us users actually do want a biased map selection - maybe we want to be sure that no map is chosen twice in a row?

[Hawkei]

If your curious about this why don't you do some homework? Go through your 1v1 ladder replays for the last month and give us a statistical breakdown of map frequency. I suspect there may be some bias here due to game length. 5 km games are usually over in less than 20 mins, but 20 km maps will often go for 60 mins. Even given a perfect distribution you will still spend more time playing on larger maps.

[Axle]

If you play as many games as TA does, I don't think its surprising at all that you're going to get a streak of 10 twin rivers in a row. Take a look at this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzYLHOX50Bc