Evildrew wrote:
Ok guys, will do some gaming tonight for testing T1 bombers but I also took the time at work to analyse a bit more this T1 Bomber thing:
So what I think has happened is the following:
Balance people thought that with the 8 sec instead of 13 sec turn rate for 2nd pass that dps increased from roughly 24DPS to 37DPS and therefore increased both the time and mass to build a T1 Bomber.
Now what is not considered is the following. T1 bomber now takes 15 secs longer to build and in exchange has 5 sec shorter turn and drop rate, that means it takes until the 4th pass for the total damage dealt to be equal looking only at time. So how many times have we seen a t1 bomber on a team game get 4 passes? I dont remember either...
The problem here is that DPS is not the full story, DPS does not consider the build time. It is like looking at the margins a business is generating without looking at how long it takes to generate them to evaluate the investment.
Let me show with an example using nodes to illustrate the probabilities of getting 4 passes with some reasonable figures to illustrate.
(the first line marks the probability that a t1 bomber strikes a target before being shot down, and so on until 4th pass)
Start
1st Pass
1. Success (90%) Fail (10%)
2nd Pass
2. Success (30%) Fail (70%)
3rd Pass
3. Success (10%) Fail (90%)
4th Pass
4. Success (1%) Fail (99%)
So using this logic the probability of getting 4 passes and equaling the damage dealt between the previous bomber and the new one (diesregarding the additional mass cost but focusing mainly on time) is 0,9*0,3*0,1*0,01=0,027%
Getting 3 passes has a probability of 2,7%
So what is clear is that higher DPS does not justify the higher cost.
You are assuming the bomber will attack the same target 4 times in a row. In reality, bombers are used the most against engies, and against them, they don't need to do a full turn. If you try to attack 4 different engies, you will find it extremely effective with the new turn ratio.
Also, bombers indeed die quite fast againts inties, but that's only when you don't have air control, when you do, they are pretty strong.
The last time I saw a bomber do 4 passes in a team game? My bombers do it quite often, specially when the enemy neglects to make inties and then blames the air player who didn't react on time. Again, you just need to attack 4 different targets or have air control.Statistics: Posted by angus000 — 31 Aug 2016, 02:59
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